Payment fraud bleeds merchants $362 billion globally from 2023 to 2028

MERCHANT losses from online payment fraud will exceed $362 billion globally from 2023 to 2028, according to a study by United Kingdom-based Juniper Research.

The analyst firm noted that the forecast includes fraudulent transaction value for airline eTicketing, remote digital goods, remote physical goods, money transfer and digital banking, as well as the total spend on fraud detection and prevention.

The industry forecast extends across eight key regions and 60 countries, which include the Philippines. These regions include North America, Latin America, West Europe, Central and East Europe, Far East and China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific,and Africa and Middle East.

According to the report titled “Online Payment Fraud: Market Forecasts, Emerging Threats & Segment Analysis 2023-2028,” a rise in eCommerce transactions in emerging markets is driving growth in merchant losses.

“Merchants there are facing new threats, such as an increased use of [artificial intelligence] AI for attacks,” the report also noted.

The report showed that merchant losses in 2023 will reach $38 billion while in 2028 alone, it said the losses will amount to $91 billion. From 2023 to 2028, the study sees losses hitting $362 billion.

The study explained further, “Online payment fraud is where cybercriminals conduct false or illegal transactions online, using a number of different fraud strategies, such as phishing, business email compromise or account takeover.”

Meanwhile, as part of the study, Juniper Research divulged its “Competitor Leaderboard for 2023.” This ranked the 21 top “fraud detection and prevention vendors,” using criteria such as the relative size of their customer base, completeness of their solutions and their future business prospects.

According to the report, the top 5 vendors for 2023 which are labeled as “established leaders,” are US-based data and analytics firm LexisNexis Risk Solutions; Ireland-based multinational data analytics and consumer credit reporting firm Experian; Florida-based payment systems firm ACI Worldwide; American multinational financial services corporation Visa, and California-based analytics software company FICO.

The research found that the leading players scored well based on the “breadth” of their anti-fraud orchestration capabilities, as well as their use of AI for analyzing trends in fraudster behavior.

In order to stay ahead of the competition, the study noted that vendors must “utilize data collected throughout the e-Commerce process to further develop their fraud detection and prevention solutions through training and advancing AI models.”

For her part, Research author Cara Malone said in a statement released by Juniper Research on Monday, “Fraud detection and prevention providers must educate their clients in the importance of data sharing, in order for the highest accuracy within their solutions.”

Malone noted this is “increasingly important with the growing use of AI, as it utilizes a variety of data to examine patterns within fraud, which is extremely advantageous in a space where fraudsters usually attack at scale, rather than attacking a specific customer.”

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