Citigroup Adjusts Macau Gaming Revenue Forecast Amidst Market Trend

Due to the dynamic changes in Macau’s gaming environment, Citigroup has revised its April gross gaming revenue (GGR) projection.

The move from MOP18.5 billion ($2.3 billion) to MOP18 billion ($2.23 billion) indicates that the bank is keeping a careful eye on emerging trends and nuances in the market.

Based on information from industry insiders, analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung issued an investment letter estimating Macau’s GGR for the first 21 days of April will be MOP12.5 billion ($1.55 billion).

Interestingly, last week’s estimated daily run-rate was about MOP600 million ($74.4 million), which is a 2 percent increase over the previous week’s figures.

The study provides insight into fluctuations in Macau’s mass and VIP volumes, with general volumes falling by 4-5 percent and VIP volumes falling by 5–6% month over month.

A below-average VIP hold rate is discovered after more research, suggesting an unexpected fall in this category.

In light of this, the research team at Citigroup has cautiously adjusted its GGR forecast for April, pointing to a largely stable daily run-rate for the remainder of the month.

The significance of these modifications is emphasized by the latest gambling results in Macau. GGR reached a 49-month high of MOP19.5 billion ($2.42 billion) in March.

The astute scheduling of holidays and increased visitor foot traffic from Mainland China and Hong Kong around Easter and Cheng Ching are responsible for this rise, which represents a 5.5 percent increase over February’s figures and a slight increase over the post-COVID peak set in October.

The Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO) is expecting a high volume of incoming visitors during the next Labor Day vacation, which falls on May 1–5 in mainland China.

Expectations have been raised by forecasts of 130,000 inbound travelers per day on average, exceeding recent holiday peaks.

In spite of shifting market conditions, Citigroup projects that Macau’s hotel occupancy rate will reach 90% over the Labor Day weekend, providing new hope for the tourism and gaming industries in the area.

Original Story by: Asian Gaming Brief