Capacity limits could push Macau GGR downwards: brokerage

July 27, 2022 Macau Earnings & Filings

Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd says it expects Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in July to be down 99 percent versus July 2019, before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. July’s average daily rate could be down 87 percent even compared to June, added the institution.

Macau casino GGR fell to its lowest monthly tally this year in June – and the lowest since September 2020 – amid the city’s biggest-ever Covid-19 outbreak. Aggregate GGR fell by 46.4 percent year-on-year in the first six months of 2022.

The Sanford Bernstein team said it expected August casino GGR to decline 89 percent versus the same month in 2019. “But could still be lower depending on length of border closure, capacity limit, and other Covid restrictions,” wrote analysts Vitaly Umansky, Louis Li, and Shirley Yang in a Monday note.

Most Macau casinos reopened on Saturday (July 23) with limited operations as part of countermeasures against Covid-19, and with business volumes seemingly depressed as travel restrictions constrain the number of visitors from mainland China. By Friday, the city had had a nearly two-week shutdown of non-essential businesses, including casinos.

“Channel checks indicate that Macau’s July month-to-date GGR (July 1-24) was still only about MOP200 million (US$24.8 million), largely unchanged since July 10 before the casino closure,” said the Sanford Bernstein team.