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Deutsche Bank analysts revise fourth-quarter 2023 EBITDAR forecast for MGM China

February 7, 2024 ChinaMacau Casino & HotelIndustry Updates

The analysts at Deutsche Bank have increased MGM China’s estimated fourth-quarter 2023 EBITDAR from $231 million to $254 million. This change is the result of consistently excellent performance.

The research team at Deutsche Bank emphasized exceptional October performance in the investment letter, and the management projected a record-breaking monthly EBITDA in Macau for that month. Moreover, MGM said during the third-quarter 2023 results call that it had secured a noteworthy 15.5 percent gross gaming revenue (GGR) market share.

The text also suggests a cautious approach to modeling and draws attention to the potential escalation of October’s strength. Even if there were early doubts regarding MGM’s increases in market share during the early stages of the recovery, industry participants now recognize the enormous success made in this area.

With the addition of 200 extra tables, Deutsche Bank emphasizes MGM’s advantage during periods of strong demand and holidays, such as Golden Week and the impending Chinese New Year.

On February 13, after the closing of the market, MGM Resorts is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2023 results.

Deutsche Bank raises its EBITDAR estimate for Las Vegas from $809 million to $843 million in addition to the change for MGM China.

Based on recent higher modifications to market expectations for Las Vegas and Macau for 2024 and 2025, the broker decided to update these estimations. Consequently, the combined property EBITDAR forecast for 2024 increases by 1.4% over the prior projection.

The outstanding 829 percent growth in net sales to $812.52 million during the third quarter of 2023, which represents a 10% increase over the same time in 2019, highlights MGM China’s tremendous achievement. After declining by $70 million in the third quarter of 2022, adjusted property EBITDAR recovered by 23% to $226 million in the pre-pandemic period.

MGM Resorts International is the main owner of MGM China, which is operated by MGM Grand Paradise, SA, which has one of the six gaming concessions in Macau. MGM Cotai, an integrated resort in Cotai that expanded MGM’s presence in Macau upon its opening in early 2018, and MGM Macau, an integrated resort situated on the Macau Peninsula, are both operated by MGM Grand Paradise, SA.

Original story by: Asia Gaming Brief

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