Macau’s GGR to make full recovery in Golden Week holiday

Macau’s gaming revenues are projected to reach levels not seen since before the COVID-19 pandemic during the forthcoming Golden Week holiday.

The investment bank JP Morgan forecasts that Macau’s gaming revenues for October’s Golden Week will recover to 2019 levels. In the first 17 days of September, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) amounted to MOP$8.1 billion, or an average of MOP$476 million per day, according to recent channel reviews conducted by the bank.

Analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li noted that this indicates a significant improvement, with a run-rate of between MOP$540 million and MOP$550 million per day over the past week, compared to only MOP$430 million during the beginning of the month when the gaming industry was affected by extreme weather.

Analysts at JP Morgan are now focusing on Golden Week, during which they anticipate visitation and expenditure to match consensus forecasts. They anticipate that the number of tourists will recover to approximately 85 percent of the levels observed during the 2019 Golden Week, while the bulk GGR is expected to return to pre-epidemic levels.

The bank also noted that the majority of investors would be satisfied if visitation levels recovered to at least 85 percent of pre-COVID levels. Recent visitation trends and analysis by JP Morgan indicate that there is limited downside risk associated with this recovery scenario.

Macau’s GGR has increased month-over-month throughout the first eight months of the year, reaching post-COVID peaks of MOP$16.66 billion (US$2.06 billion) in July and MOP$17.21 billion (US$2.12 billion) in August. This positive trend demonstrates the region’s resilience and capacity to adapt and recover despite the pandemic’s challenges.

Original story by: IAG