September GGR in Macau trails seasonality: Brokerages

September 18, 2024 Macau Industry Updates

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) has seen a recent decline, falling below typical seasonal trends, according to analysts from UBS. Over the past week, GGR averaged around MOP536 million ($66.8 million) per day, down from MOP594 million ($74 million) per day in the prior week.

This brings the average GGR for the month to approximately MOP567 million ($70.7 million) per day, marking an 11 percent decline compared to the previous month. Historically, the drop in this period from 2015 to 2019 was around 5 percent month-on-month.

In terms of revenue breakdown, UBS reports that mass-market GGR decreased by 10-12 percent, while VIP gaming volumes dropped by 8-10 percent, with a VIP hold rate between 3.1-3.4 percent.

Looking ahead to October’s Golden Week, UBS expects daily GGR to reach between MOP900 million and MOP950 million ($112-118 million), matching the levels seen during the May Labor Week in 2024 and last year’s October Golden Week, driven by a rise in visitors from newly eligible Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) cities and a series of concerts.

In a report published by AGB. Citigroup has also revised its September GGR forecast, lowering it from MOP18.25 billion ($2.27 billion) to MOP17.75 billion ($2.21 billion), citing weaker weekly performance. The revision reflects the likelihood that some players may be postponing their visits to Macau until the Mid-Autumn Festival from September 15-17. Despite the adjustment, the forecast still shows a 19 percent year-on-year increase, though this represents only about 80 percent of September 2019’s GGR levels. The updated estimate suggests a daily GGR of MOP617 million for the remainder of the month.

JP Morgan, meanwhile, projects September’s GGR to be around MOP17 billion, with a daily rate of MOP570 million ($71 million). This would represent an 11 percent decline from the daily rate of MOP637 million ($79.4 million) in August. As a result, third-quarter GGR is expected to remain flat compared to the previous quarter, falling below the usual 2-3 percent quarterly growth. JP Morgan noted that this outcome was anticipated due to weaker performance in June and July.