Scholars expect China’s GDP to expand faster in the third quarter

UBS Securities Asia Ltd expects China’s GDP to expand faster in the third quarter, upgrading its 2023 expansion projection to 5.2 percent from 4.8 percent before. This upbeat outlook stems from improved third-quarter GDP growth and higher-than-expected home sales in September and early October as a consequence of further policy easing since late August.

Tao Wang, the Hong Kong-based head of Asia economics and top China economist at UBS, feels that early signs of a Chinese economic rebound are encouraging. People’s spending power is projected to increase as the economy grows, particularly on trips to Macau.

Despite the mainland’s economic problems, Chinese consumer demand in Macau has remained high. According to China Tourism Academy data, Macau accounted for around 40% of the 40.37 million outbound travels made by mainland Chinese tourists in the first half of 2023.

According to UBS, the global IT cycle may be reaching its bottom, perhaps reversing the decline in export volume. Furthermore, data from the autumn Golden Week vacation (September 30 to October 6) revealed that consumption was still recovering, with Macau receiving around a million visitors throughout the holiday period.

In September, China’s economic activity surpassed predictions, contributing to third-quarter GDP growth of 5.3 percent sequentially. Retail sales rose from a low base, but family income and consumption rose over the previous quarter. The availability of financial liquidity has increased demand for the Macau casino business among mainland Chinese clients.

Individuals are expected to have more money from various assets as the Chinese economy expands, boosting their spending on travel. Given the present global context, Macau’s current monthly gross gaming revenue level is projected to be maintained until the end of the year.

The gross gaming revenue (GGR) at Macau’s casinos reached MOP14.94 billion (US$1.85 billion) in September, increasing the GGR for the first nine months of 2023 to more than MOP128.95 billion, an increase of 305.3 percent over the same period in 2022.

UBS forecasts that China’s GDP would grow by 3.5 percent sequentially and 5.0 percent year on year in the fourth quarter. Property activity stability in the next months, along with lesser decreases the following year, are expected to have a less significant influence on growth in 2024.

Original story by: GGRAsia