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JP Morgan expects Macau GGR to exceed $81.2 million per day during CNY

February 2, 2024 Macau Casino & HotelIndustry Updates

The eight-day Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday period, which spans from February 10 to February 17, is expected to bring in more than MOP650 million (US$81.2 million) every day for Macau’s casino sector, according to JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd.

This forecast is based on what the brokerage refers to as Macau’s “best-ever January” for overall demand.

According to the city’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) rose to MOP19.34 billion in January, up 67.0 percent year over year. With a 4.1 percent increase over December’s MOP18.57 billion, this was the second-highest monthly total after Covid-19.

Analysts at JP Morgan, DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li noted that January’s GGR above the figure for December 2023 and beyond initial projections, indicating two months in a row of outperformance and defying overall trends in Chinese consumption.

The gradual restoration of base mass players was expected to allow mass GGR to return to above 110% of pre-Covid levels in January, according to the study. In contrast, it was anticipated that VIP GGR would remain steady at a 20% recovery rate.

According to JP Morgan’s findings, over the Chinese New Year holiday, a record-high number of gaming clients reserved complimentary hotels in advance. Several five-star hotels in Macau’s casino resorts were fully reserved for the upcoming Chinese New Year celebration, which is based on the lunar calendar.

The Chinese New Year holiday this year falls on February 10–17, a period of eight days. Due to mainland Chinese visitors’ propensity to spend, Macau’s full-year 2024 growth forecast was moved up from a predicted 18% rise to a 26% increase, or MOP231.3 billion, by Citigroup analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung.

The GGR estimate for February by Citigroup was raised from MOP18.5 billion to MOP19.5 billion. Analysts predict that during the first 11 days of February, GGR will drop to around MOP567 million per day. Then, from February 12 to February 17, which are the last six days of the Chinese New Year holiday, GGR will re-accelerate to over MOP900 million each day.

Original story by: GGRAsia

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