Deutsche Bank projects 20.6% y-o-y increase in Macau’s casino GGR for 2024

According to Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) would increase by 20.6 percent on an annual basis in 2024 to reach just over US$27.62 billion.

The mass-market GGR, which is anticipated to rise by 23.7% annually to reach around US$21.34 billion, is primarily responsible for the anticipated growth. From 2023 to 2026, VIP GGR is predicted to grow by 11.0 percent, or around US$6.29 billion.

Because some previous VIP junket players may have moved to the premium mass market, it is difficult to compare the operational-margin significance of pre-pandemic mass GGR in 2019 to mass GGR today.

Additionally, changes in market dynamics suggest that house-managed VIPs are probably contributing a larger portion of VIP GGR, meaning that the margin is not quite equivalent to that of junket-managed VIPs.

While the mass GGR prognosis for 2024 by Deutsche Bank is 108.5 percent of the 2019 level, the VIP GGR prediction for this year is just 37.1 percent of the 2019 level.

In 2023, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) increased by 333.8 percent to MOP183.06 billion (US$22.71 billion) over the previous year. This was in line with the majority of travel restrictions between Macau and its main travel destinations, Hong Kong and mainland China, being loosened in January 2023.

Nonetheless, the GGR for 2023 was only 62.6% of the MOP292.46 billion realized in 2019, the trading period before to the outbreak.

Early 2024 Macau statistics, according to CLSA Ltd., indicated a significant increase in hotel bookings. The company said that, four weeks prior to the Chinese New Year weekend (10–11 February), their four-week top average hotel charges had increased by 27% year over year. Moreover, ten of the thirty-three operational hotels that it saw were already fully booked for the weekend.

The first 14 days of January saw Macau’s daily casino GGR estimated at MOP8.6 billion, indicating a robust run rate of MOP614 million per day, up from MOP599 million in December. January’s GGR is expected to be between MOP17.5 billion and MOP18 billion, according to JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd, despite an expected seasonal decline in GGR ahead of the Chinese New Year.

Original story by: GGRAsia