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Morgan Stanley Lowers Forecast for Macau Casino GGR in 2025

Morgan Stanley analysts predict that Macau's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) could reach around MOP238.35 billion (US$29.78 billion).

Morgan Stanley, gross gaming revenue (GGR),  Macau casino, EBITDA, MGM China Holdings Ltd

Morgan Stanley has recently lowered its forecast for Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025, signaling a more conservative outlook for the city’s gaming sector. The investment bank now predicts that GGR will grow by 4.8 percent year-on-year, reaching approximately MOP238.35 billion (US$29.78 billion). This figure represents a 4.0-percent reduction from its prior projection, according to its report issued on December 17, 2024. 


The revised estimates extend beyond GGR to include earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for Macau’s casino operators. Morgan Stanley expects combined EBITDA for the industry to hit US$7.99 billion in 2025, which is 7.2 percent lower than its previous forecast. Nonetheless, this figure would still mark a 5.7-percent improvement compared to 2024 levels.


The bank’s analysts, Praveen Choudhary, Gareth Leung, and Stephen Grambling, provided insights into the adjustments. They were cited by GGRAsia as saying that Macau’s “GGR and EBITDA could grow by mid-single digits in 2025” but emphasized a cautious stance on industry margins. “We are below sell-side consensus as we are more conservative on margins,” the analysts wrote. They anticipate that weak GGR performance in December 2024 will likely be followed by a stronger first quarter in 2025.


One of the key factors influencing the lowered EBITDA forecast is the increased reinvestment costs that many operators are expected to incur. While the bank’s mass GGR assumption remains steady at 118 percent of 2019 levels, these additional costs have led to a 7-percent reduction in the overall EBITDA forecast for 2025. 


“We are 6-percent below sell-side consensus as we mark to buy-side consensus, which is lower, in our view,” the analysts explained.


In terms of market performance, Morgan Stanley identified Sands China Ltd, Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd, and SJM Holdings Ltd as likely “gainers” of increased mass-market GGR share in 2025. Conversely, the bank projects that MGM China Holdings Ltd, Wynn Macau Ltd, and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd may experience slight declines in their mass-market share next year.


These projections come amidst broader optimism from Macau’s government regarding the city’s gaming and tourism sectors. The government has forecast MOP240 billion in casino GGR for 2025, a figure described by Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng as both “definitely achievable” and a “conservative estimate.”


Additionally, Macau’s Secretary for Economy and Finance, Lei Wai Nong, has expressed confidence in the city’s ability to attract visitors. Speaking in late November, Lei projected that Macau could welcome 36 million visitors in 2025, representing a 9-percent increase from the 33 million expected in 2024.



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