Macau's Chinese New Year casino revenue fell short of pre-pandemic levels, raising concerns about the gaming hub's recovery. Visitor numbers near 2019, but spending remains down.
Macau's casinos raked in MOP780 million (approximately PHP5.4 billion) in daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) during the recent Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, but a closer look at the numbers reveals that the industry is still struggling to recapture its pre-pandemic glory.
Macau’s Chinese New Year revenue for 2025 is a significant 8% lower than the same period in 2019, according to Seaport Research Partners, highlighting the lingering challenges facing the industry.
While Macau welcomed 1.31 million visitors over the eight-day holiday (January 28th to February 4th), a daily average of 163,700, the overall visitor count was down 3.5% from last year. Although visitor numbers have nearly reached pre-pandemic levels, the spending habits of those visitors tell a different tale. Analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that the estimated per-visitor GGR was US$593 (approximately PHP33,700), a 3% increase compared to last CNY, but still down 3% compared to 2019. This suggests that while Macau is attracting tourists, they aren't spending as much at the gaming tables as they did before the pandemic.
Umansky cautioned that the "spend per visitor" figure could be misleading, as Macau likely saw an influx of non-gaming visitors during the holiday. This influx of tourists, while positive for the overall economy, may not translate directly into casino revenue. He also pointed out that "anecdotes from Macau point to somewhat better premium play than base mass play," suggesting a potential shift in the composition of gamblers, with high-rollers potentially propping up the market while the mass market remains subdued.
The Chinese New Year period is a crucial indicator for Macau's gaming industry. In 2019, it accounted for approximately 2% of the year's total GGR. While that figure rose to 2.7% in 2024, this year's CNY is projected to contribute around 2.6% to the forecasted MOP242 billion (approximately PHP1.7 trillion) annual revenue for 2025. This slight decrease, coupled with the lower overall revenue compared to 2019, paints a picture of an industry still struggling to fully recover.
Looking ahead, Umansky forecasts February's GGR to reach MOP18.5 billion (approximately PHP127 billion), a modest 0.1% year-on-year increase and a 1.3% month-on-month rise. He anticipates an average daily GGR of MOP609 million (approximately PHP4.2 billion) for the rest of the month, which he believes is achievable.
Despite these projections, the comparison to 2019 remains a stark reminder of the challenges facing Macau's gaming sector. The city's reliance on gaming revenue and the changing dynamics of tourism and consumer spending raise questions about the long-term health and future of this vital industry. Whether Macau can recapture its pre-pandemic glory remains to be seen.
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