Macau’s casino revenue surged to MOP1.08B (US$135M) from Oct 1-6, 2024, the highest since the 2019 National Day holiday, according to JP Morgan Securities.
The casino industry of Macau has recorded a remarkable surge in gross gaming revenue (GGR) during the National Day holiday from October 1 to October 6, 2024. According to JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd, the daily run-rate for this period was estimated at just over MOP1.08 billion (approximately US$135.4 million), marking the highest level in five years since the comparable holiday in 2019.
The preliminary data indicates that the total GGR for the first six days of October reached MOP6.5 billion, averaging MOP1,083 million daily. This figure represents a significant 30 percent increase year-on-year. JP Morgan analysts noted that this performance not only surpassed market expectations, which ranged between MOP850 million to MOP900 million per day, but also eclipsed the daily run-rate observed during the 2019 Golden Week, which was MOP1.16 billion.
The analysts highlighted that this year’s holiday performance is indicative of a robust recovery in Macau’s gaming sector. The GGR for this period is approximately 20 percent higher than the average of MOP910 million per day recorded during the Labour Day holiday in May. “The strong holiday season performance suggests a ‘very strong- and golden-’ holiday,” they stated in their report which was cited by GGRAsia.
Citigroup and CLSA Ltd also noted positive trends based on field visits during the holiday period, reporting strong bet sizes and volumes throughout the Golden Week. According to JP Morgan, the mass gaming segment has rebounded to around 130 to 140 percent of pre-COVID levels, while the VIP segment is lagging, recovering only to 30 to 35 percent of its pre-pandemic figures. This marks a significant improvement compared to the third quarter recovery rates, which were approximately 110 percent for the mass segment and around 25 percent for VIPs.
The influx of visitors during this period has also been noteworthy. Macau welcomed an aggregate of 916,215 visitors from October 1 to October 6, with 773,895 coming from mainland China. This represents a 4.5 percent increase in visitor volume compared to the same period in 2019, according to data from the Macao Government Tourism Office.
The increase in mass GGR is particularly encouraging for the local economy. JP Morgan’s analysts estimated that spending per capita improved by roughly 25 percent compared to pre-COVID levels. They noted, “This indicates that the recovery in mass GGR significantly outpaces the increase in mainland visitors during the Golden Week.”
Anecdotal evidence suggests that events such as concerts have also played a role in boosting visitor numbers and revenue. High-profile performances, such as those by popular Hong Kong entertainer Andy Lau, attracted premium mass players who may have otherwise traveled earlier in the season. His concert, held from October 3 to October 6 at Galaxy’s Arena, is believed to have contributed to the above-seasonal recovery in premium mass gaming.
Looking ahead, JP Morgan forecasts that Macau’s casino GGR for the fourth quarter of 2023 will reach MOP56.6 billion. If achieved, this would represent a 5 percent increase year-on-year and a substantial 78 percent recovery from the same quarter in 2019.
The strong performance during the National Day holiday highlights the resilience of Macau’s gaming sector as it continues to rebound from the challenges posed by the pandemic. The combination of increasing visitor numbers, higher spending, and successful entertainment events suggests that the industry is on a positive trajectory as it approaches the end of the year.
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