An analytics body forecasts that Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) may surge by 6% year-on-year in 2025.
Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to increase by 6% year-on-year in 2025, according to Seaport Research Partners. This growth is attributed to several factors, including improving economic sentiment in China, enhanced visa policies facilitating travel to Macau, and a return to traditional money movement methods.
“We currently forecast first-quarter GGR at plus 4.2 percent year-on-year, plus 4.0 percent quarter-on-quarter. The first-quarter 4.2-percent year-on-year increase is weaker than the plus 6.1 percent year-on-year in fourth-quarter 2024, as year-on-year comparisons are becoming more difficult,” said analyst Vitaly Umansky in the memo issued January 6.
While the first quarter of 2025 is expected to show more modest growth of 4.2% due to challenging year-on-year comparisons, Seaport remains optimistic about the industry's overall trajectory.
Seaport believes continued Chinese stimulus measures, including increased government spending and regulatory easing, will boost economic activity and consumer confidence in 2025.
“Our view on China economic strengthening and corresponding improvement in consumer and business sentiment could lead to stronger base mass recovery – with continued premium growth – in 2025, which leads to our estimate of 2025 GGR growth of 8 percent,” Umansky shared.
Furthermore, recent visa policy changes, such as faster processing times and expanded Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) coverage, are expected to facilitate increased mainland Chinese visitation to Macau. The crackdown on illegal money exchange activities is also anticipated to shift money movement back towards established channels like Union Pay pawn shops, supporting liquidity within the Macau gaming sector. Seaport maintains a positive outlook on Macau gaming stocks, viewing their current valuations as attractive investment opportunities.
Read related article: Citigroup Projects Strong Start for Macau’s Gaming Recovery in 2025
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