Macau’s gaming industry is set for a strong start in 2025, with Citigroup projecting January 2025 GGR at MOP19 billion ($2.38 billion), 76% of January 2019 levels.
The gaming industry of Macau is entering 2025 with a promising outlook, driven by strong projections for gross gaming revenue (GGR). Citigroup has forecasted Macau GGR in January 2025 to hit MOP19 billion ($2.38 billion), which averages out to MOP613 million ($76.7 million) per day. This figure represents approximately 76 percent of the levels recorded in January 2019, showcasing Macau’s steady recovery from the pandemic’s economic disruptions.
In a recent investment memo analyzing the December 2024 GGR data, Citigroup analyst George Choi provided a positive growth outlook for the early months of 2025. The combined GGR for January and February is expected to rise by 6 percent year-over-year. This projection accounts for the later timing of the Chinese New Year Golden Week, which will take place from January 28th to February 4th this year. The timing adjustment effectively neutralizes any potential distortions caused by the Chinese New Year’s impact on travel and gaming patterns.
January’s GGR forecast also considers the traditionally slower travel period leading up to the Spring Festival. According to Citigroup, this timing quirk is reflected in an anticipated 2 percent year-over-year decline for January. Despite this temporary dip, the broader picture remains positive, with resilience evident in the projected combined January-February GGR of MOP40 billion ($5.01 billion).
“We estimate a 6 percent year-over-year growth for January and February 2025 combined, which aligns with Macau’s ongoing recovery trajectory,” stated the investment memo which was cited by AGBrief.
December 2024 GGR Performance
Macau’s GGR for December 2024 reached MOP18.2 billion ($2.28 billion), averaging MOP587 million ($73.5 million) daily—about 80 percent of December 2019 levels. Although slightly below the consensus forecast of MOP18.9 billion, the city’s gaming sector demonstrated resilience with a strong finish to the month. The daily run rate improved to MOP603 million ($75.5 million) during the final 16 days of December, a 4 percent increase compared to the MOP579 million ($72.5 million) recorded earlier in the month.
This late-December boost coincided with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Macau from December 20th to 22nd for the 25th anniversary of the Handover. While the high-profile visit initially disrupted gaming activities, the market quickly rebounded after his departure. Citigroup noted, “Macau had a strong finish in late December,” underscoring the city’s ability to maintain positive momentum despite temporary interruptions.
For the entirety of 2024, Macau’s GGR totaled MOP226.8 billion ($28.39 billion), reflecting a 78 percent recovery compared to the pre-pandemic figure of MOP292.5 billion recorded in 2019. While not yet fully back to its peak, the gaming industry’s performance highlights substantial progress in its recovery journey.
Tourism Trends and Holiday Boosts
Macau’s tourism sector also showed encouraging signs of recovery during the Christmas season. Between December 20th and 26th, the city welcomed 728,000 visitors. December 25th alone saw a daily high of 112,025 visitors, an 8 percent increase year-over-year. While Christmas is not a public holiday in mainland China, the festive season still managed to draw significant tourist interest. Hotel occupancy during this period stood at an impressive 90.8 percent, reflecting strong demand from travelers.
The synergy between tourism and gaming has been a cornerstone of Macau’s economic success. The city’s ability to attract visitors, even during traditionally quieter periods, is a testament to its enduring appeal as a global entertainment hub. As the Chinese New Year approaches, the late January Golden Week is expected to further bolster visitation and gaming revenue.
Positive Outlook for 2025
Looking ahead, the outlook for Macau’s gaming industry remains optimistic. The projected GGR growth for early 2025 reflects the city’s resilience and adaptability in navigating timing challenges and evolving market conditions. While external factors such as geopolitical developments and changes in mainland China’s travel policies could influence performance, Macau’s recovery trajectory appears firmly on track.
The combined January-February GGR forecast of MOP40 billion ($5.01 billion) is a strong indicator of the industry’s momentum. With continued investment in infrastructure, marketing, and diversified entertainment offerings, Macau is well-positioned to sustain its recovery and reclaim its status as the world’s premier gaming destination.
Read related article: Macau Forecasts $29.7 Billion in Gaming Revenue for 2025
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