Analysts predict Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) will surpass the 2025 target, reaching MOP245 billion. The report cites rising tourist arrivals and spending, along with casino renovations, as key factors, while acknowledging potential economic headwinds.
Macau's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is forecast to surpass the local government's 2025 target, according to a new analysis by CreditSights Inc., a division of the Fitch Group. The firm projects GGR will reach MOP245 billion (US$30.5 billion), exceeding the government's MOP240 billion forecast.
The projection, detailed in a research paper released Thursday, is based on anticipated increases in tourist arrivals and a slight rise in GGR per visitor in 2025. CreditSights also expects improved hotel occupancy rates this year, attributed to ongoing casino renovations, room conversions, and the introduction of new entertainment offerings.
Analysts Nicholas Chen, David Bussey, and Zerlina Zeng stated, "We expect Macau’s GGR to slightly exceed the 2025 target of MOP240 billion and reach MOP245 billion." This projection revises the Macau government’s initial 2025 budget forecast for casino GGR.
Following a 23.9% year-on-year increase in 2024, which saw revenues reach MOP226.78 billion, CreditSights forecasts a moderate 8% year-on-year GGR growth in 2025. This growth trajectory is projected to bring Macau’s gaming revenue to approximately 84% of its 2019 pre-pandemic levels. The analysts’ projection assumes that visitations in 2025 will improve to around 94 percent of 2019 levels and GGR per visitor will experience a modest 2-percent year-on-year increase, rising from MOP6,493 in 2024 to MOP6,606 in 2025.
The report acknowledges potential challenges to Macau’s casino industry, including China’s slowing economic growth and domestic consumption. However, it also identifies factors expected to support the sector in 2025. These include the continuing easing of travel restrictions, with more cities added to the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS), further progress on casino renovations and expansions, and the potential positive effects of recent macro support policies from Chinese authorities on consumer sentiment.
Official data indicates that Macau received nearly 34.93 million visitors in 2024, a 23.8% increase compared to the previous year. Macau’s tourism officials have suggested potential visitor numbers of 38 to 39 million this year, approaching pre-pandemic levels. The easing of mainland exit-visa policies, particularly for visitors from neighboring Zhuhai, is expected to contribute to this increase.
The CreditSights report presents a projection of continued recovery for Macau’s gaming industry, indicating a potential exceeding of current revenue targets.
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