Esports Betting: How to Play and Win

Understanding Esports Betting: The Basics

If you’re an avid follower of esports, it’s likely that you’ve encountered logos of betting platforms in team jerseys, or even esports news websites. But how does esports betting work? How big is this industry, at least for Asia?

Let’s define what is esports betting. True to its word, esports betting involves wagering on competitive video game matches. Just like in traditional sports betting, individuals place their bets on the team or athlete they believe will emerge victorious. eSports spans a diverse range of gaming genres, including everything from first-person shooters to real-time strategy games.

In Asia, the popular titles include Mobile Legends: Bang Bang, League of Legends, Dota 2, and Call of Duty Mobile. Payment and withdrawal options are also accessible, supporting local and international e-wallets. In the Philippines, some of the popular esports betting sites include 1XBET and GG.BET. While both concentrate on esports, they also offer sports betting and casino betting features.

THE OBJECTIVE

The objective of esports betting is to predict the outcomes of competitive video game matches or events and place wagers based on those predictions. Bettors can wager on a variety of outcomes, such as match winners, player performances, in-game events like kills or objectives, and more. The goal is to leverage knowledge of the game and its players to make informed bets and potentially earn profits. Esports betting enhances the viewer’s engagement with their favorite games while offering the excitement of financial rewards based on accurate predictions.

How big is esports betting in Asia?

Esports betting in Asia has seen significant growth over the past few years, driven by the increasing popularity of competitive gaming and the rise of online gambling platforms. The esports betting market in Asia is projected to grow substantially, with estimates suggesting it could reach billions in revenue by the mid-2020s. Industry forecasts cited by Statista indicate that market revenue is set to reach approximately $1.2 billion by 2024. Additionally, the sector is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.88% from 2024 to 2029, ultimately reaching a projected value of $1.59 billion by 2029.

Countries like China, South Korea, and Japan have been at the forefront of the esports scene. However, regulatory frameworks vary widely. For example, while South Korea has a robust legal framework for esports, China’s regulations around gambling can be quite strict.

The variance in regulations across Asian countries presents challenges for operators and bettors alike. Some countries may impose strict penalties for illegal gambling activities, which can deter participation.

Match fixing (also known as game fixing) is also an issue, with regulating bodies working to address these issues. Match fixing is fraudulently manipulating games. This means that the result of a match is arranged beforehand. Also known as game fixing or simply sports fixing, this involves deceitfully altering the outcome of games, typically through prior arrangements among various parties to ensure a specific result. This practice not only breaches the game’s regulations but often violates the law as well.

Betting on traditional sports and esports

Just like traditional sports, esports betting markets allow users to place bets on match outcomes, player performances, and more. While there are many similarities between esports betting and traditional sports betting, the differences are significant. Esports betting offers unique opportunities and more intricate options, reflecting the dynamic nature of video games. For instance, instead of just betting on who wins, esports bettors can wager on details like the total number of kills, objectives secured, or even outcomes of individual maps in a match. This adds more depth compared to traditional sports betting, which typically focuses on final scores and game winners.

TERMS YOU NEED TO KNOW BEFORE BETTING IN ESPORTS

Accumulator (Also known as “acca,” this term is used in UK markets)

Combining multiple bets into one, with all selections needing to win for a payout. It means the same thing as parlay (which is discussed below).

Bookmaker (or Bookie)

An individual or a company that facilitates betting on competitive gaming events. Their primary role is to set the odds, accept wagers from bettors, and pay out winnings to those who have placed successful bets.

First Blood

A bet on which team or player will score the first kill or elimination.

Futures

Betting on the outcome of a tournament or event well in advance.

Handicap Betting (Spread Betting)

A bet where the favorite is given a disadvantage, and the underdog an advantage to balance the odds.

Hedging

A strategy used by bookmakers or betting platforms to minimize their financial risk or liability. This is done by placing bets on opposing outcomes or adjusting their own odds to balance the amount of money wagered on each side.

Liability

The potential financial risk or exposure that a bookmaker or betting platform faces when accepting wagers.

Live Betting (In-Play Betting)

Placing bets while the match is happening, with odds that change in real-time.

Match Winner (Moneyline)

Betting on which team or player will win a specific match.

Odds

The likelihood of an outcome happening, determining potential payouts, usually presented in decimal, fractional, or moneyline formats.

Outright Winner

A bet on the overall winner of a tournament or competition.

Over/Under (Totals)

A bet on whether a statistic (like total kills or rounds) will be over or under a set number.

Parlay (term used in North American markets)

A type of bet where you combine two or more individual wagers into a single bet, offering the potential for a higher payout. However, for your parlay to win, every selection must be successful. Sportsbooks entice you with increasingly larger payouts as you include more games in your parlay, reflecting the growing difficulty of winning with each additional team.

Prop Bets (Proposition Bets)

Wagers on specific in-game events or player performance, such as the number of kills or assists.

 

How do odds work?

But before anything else, it’s also important to understand how betting odds work especially if the concept of sports betting is unfamiliar to you.
To give a gist: odds represent the likelihood of a particular income – such as a team winning a match or a specific in-game event. Like most of the popular sports, esports betting sites use decimal odds, which simply multiplies the bet by the odds displayed on the website’s screen. Let’s say you placed a P1,500 bet on a team with 2.7 odds as compared to a team with odds of 2.7

Team	Odds	Money	Payout
A	2.7	P 1,500	P 4,050
B	1.5	P 1,500	P 2,250

If you pick Team A and place a P1,500 bet, you will get P4,050 back if team A wins, which includes the amount you initially put into the bet. If you pick team B and team B wins, you will get P2,250.
Esports betting operates on a “high risk, high reward” system. Teams which are more favored to win in a game are presented under lower decimal odds, while underdogs have higher decimal odds.

Other types of odds include:

Fractional Odds (UK): Common in the UK, these odds display the ratio of profit to the original stake. For example, 3/1 means for every £1 wagered, you earn £3 profit if the bet wins.

Moneyline Odds (American): Used in the U.S., these odds can be either positive or negative. Positive odds show how much profit a $100 bet would return (e.g., +200 means a $100 bet returns $200). Negative odds indicate how much must be wagered to win $100 (e.g., -150 means you need to bet $150 to win $100).

Understanding your bets

Esports betting works similarly to traditional sports betting, where bettors place wagers on the outcome of a match, tournament, or specific in-game events. You can simply bet on the outcome of the game (moneyline) or make combined bets based on objectives, and even multiple games (parlay).

To explain how it works, let’s explore the Valorant Champions 2024 Grand Finals match between Team Heretics of Europe and EDward Gaming of China (EDG).

Team	Odds
EDward Gaming	2.35
Team Heretics	1.55

Source: Valorant Match EDward Gaming vs Team Heretics

To arrive at these odds, bookmakers explore the head-to-head statistics of these teams, along with their current match history. In this case, Team Heretics has 1.55 odds, with EDG having 2.35 odds. Bookmakers will give higher numbers for teams which they believe are more disadvantaged, lower numbers go to those who are favored to win.

Now let’s contextualize this with their previous matches and the tournament bracket at the time. EDG kept their place in the upper bracket before reaching the Grand Finals. But bookmakers noted that TH defeated EDG in Masters Shanghai, adding to the fact that European teams were dominant over China teams since China was only added to the VCT circuit last year.

This makes it equally important to constantly keep up-to-date with news on your preferred esports game, for you to understand which teams to put your money on.

If you placed your bet on EDG, you will get 2.35x of what you bet on. If you, say bet P1,000, you will get P2,350 back. In the event that Team Heretics won and you bet on them, you will get P1,550 back. In this case, EDG won over Team Heretics, 3-2, to claim the title as the best Valorant team in the world. This means you get P2,350 in return if you bet on them.

Handicap betting

In handicap betting for esports, one team is given a virtual advantage or disadvantage in maps to balance the odds, especially when there’s a perceived skill gap between the teams.

Bookmakers calculate handicap bets by assessing the relative strength of the teams or players involved in a match. They analyze past performances, statistics, and other factors to assign a handicap that levels the playing field.

For example, if one team is significantly stronger, a bookmaker might set a -1.5 map handicap for that team. They monitor betting patterns and adjust the odds accordingly to ensure balanced action on both sides, minimizing their risk while maximizing potential profits.

We go back to the match above, done on a best-of-five series. Let’s say you placed a -1.5 map handicap bet on EDG, this means you are predicting that EDG will win by at least two maps (e.g., a 3-1 or 3-0 victory).

If EDG wins 3-1 or 3-0, you win the bet because they covered the handicap. In this case, the final score is 3-2 – this means you lose the bet because EDG didn’t cover the -1.5 map difference.

Handicap betting is also done for kills, a category commonly seen in Multiple Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games. For this example, we will be using the MPL Philippines Grand Finals match between FNATIC Onic PH and Aurora.

In kill handicap betting, one team is given a virtual kill advantage or disadvantage to balance the odds. For the October 20 match between FNATIC Onic PH and Aurora in MPL PH, where FNATIC Onic PH won 4-3, let’s say you bet a kill handicap of -5.5 for FNATIC Onic PH.

In kill handicap betting, a virtual advantage or disadvantage is applied to the total kills by a team to balance the odds.

Let’s say FNATIC Onic PH is the favorite with a -5.5 kill handicap. This means that for the bet to win, FNATIC Onic PH must win the match with at least 6 more kills than Aurora.

If the final kill score is 60-52 in favor of FNATIC, they won with 8 more kills than Aurora, so the bet wins.

If the kill score is 60-56, they only won with 4 kills over Aurora, so the bet loses.

Over/Under

In over/under betting for esports, you wager on whether the total number of maps, rounds, or kills in a match will be more (over) or less (under) than a set number by the bookmaker.

Let’s go back to the match between EDG vs. Team Heretics Let’s say the total map line is set at 4.5 maps:

Over 4.5: You win if the match has 5 maps (e.g., EDG wins 3-2).

Under 4.5: You win if the match ends in 3 or 4 maps (e.g., EDG wins 3-1 or 3-0).

If EDG wins 3-2, the total is 5 maps, so the “over” bet wins.

Parlay bets

A parlay bet combines multiple wagers into a single bet, requiring all selections to win for a payout. This increases the potential payout due to the higher risk.

Let’s look at the MPL Indonesia playoff matches – for the matches (Bigetron Alpha vs. Alter Ego; FNATIC Onic ID vs. Geek Fam), you bet on Bigetron Alpha and FNATIC Onic ID, with odds of 1.17 and 1.35 respectively.

The betting site will then multiply those odds, to come to a total of 1.5795, before multiplying this with the total you bet for the total payout

It can be summarized through the following steps:

Identify the Decimal Odds

• Bet 1: 1.17
• Bet 2: 1.35

Multiply the Odds

• Total Odds Calculation:

Total Odds = 1.17 x 1.35 = 1.5795

Calculate Potential Payout

With a $5 bet:

POTENTIAL PAYOUT = TOTAL ODDS X BET AMOUNT = 1.5795 x 5 = 7.90

Explanation:
The total odds of 1.5795 reflect the combined odds of both bets in the parlay. This means that if both bets win, you would receive approximately $7.90, which includes your original stake of $5 and a profit of about $2.90.

How are esports betting odds computed?

Esports betting odds are generated based on a combination of statistical analysis, market behavior, and expert judgment by bookmakers and other influences. The odds are influenced by factors like team performance, player form, and historical match data. Bettors analyze these odds to gauge the potential risk and reward when placing bets on esports events.

The process generally involves the following steps:

Statistical Analysis: Odds are calculated by bookmakers using vast amounts of historical data on teams, players, and their performance in recent matches or tournaments. Factors such as win/loss records, head-to-head matchups, in-game metrics (e.g., kill-to-death ratio, objectives captured), and other key performance indicators are assessed.

Market Influence: Bookmakers also account for the betting market itself. As bets are placed, the odds can shift to balance the “book” and minimize potential losses for the bookmaker. For example, if a large number of bets are placed on one team, the odds may shift to make the opposing team more attractive to balance the bets on both sides.

Expert Input: Many bookmakers employ experts or analysts who are deeply familiar with the specific game or tournament. These experts contribute insights on less quantifiable factors such as team synergy, player psychology, and changes in team rosters or strategies.

In-game Conditions and External Factors: Dynamic elements, like sudden team roster changes, injuries (or absences in the case of esports players), and in-game patch updates, are taken into account. For example, if a significant patch nerfs a team’s go-to strategy, the odds might shift against them.
The combination of these factors allows bookmakers to offer competitive odds, ensuring a balance between reflecting the true probabilities of an outcome and maximizing profitability.

THE COMPUTATION

Esports betting odds are generated based on several factors, much like traditional sports betting. Bookmakers rely on statistical models, performance data, and market demand to calculate the odds. They analyze team and player statistics, previous match results, and current form. Additionally, real-time adjustments are made based on the betting volume and market dynamics.

In basic terms, bookmakers set odds to reflect both the probability of an outcome and to balance their potential risk. For example, if Team A is more likely to win based on performance history, their odds will be lower, meaning less payout compared to the underdog, Team B, which will have higher odds and a potentially higher payout if they win.

Understanding these factors, along with thorough research on teams and games, can help bettors make more informed decisions when placing bets on esports.

Summary of Computations for Generating Esports Betting Odds

1. Probability Calculation from Odds

Bookmakers convert their estimated probability of an event into odds using the formula above. This means that if a team has a 60% chance of winning, the decimal odds would be 1.67.

2. Implied Probability from Odds

Implied probability is the reverse process, where you take the odds and compute the probability that bookmakers are implying with their odds.
Bookmakers set the implied probabilities for all outcomes so that their total exceeds 100% (called the overround) to ensure profit. (Refer to the scale above for the formula.)

3. Poisson Distribution for Predicting Events

The Poisson Distribution is often used to model the number of events (like goals, kills, or objectives) that occur within a match. The formula for the Poisson probability is:

4. ELO and Glicko Ratings for Predicting Win Probabilities

The ELO rating system is used to rank teams or players and predict match outcomes. The probability that Player A with rating RAR_ARA​ wins against Player B with rating RBR_BRB​ is calculated as:
The Glicko system is an extension of ELO that incorporates a rating deviation (RD), which reflects the confidence in a player’s rating. It uses a more complex formula, but the concept remains similar: a higher rating or lower RD means a higher probability of winning.

5. Market Adjustments in Odds Based on Betting Volume

When bookmakers adjust odds dynamically based on betting volume, the changes are often managed by algorithms that take into account the ratio of bets placed on each side.
The new adjusted odds can be updated based on the volume of bets placed on an outcome. Bookmakers balance the risk by keeping the implied probabilities consistent across outcomes while maintaining profit margins.

 

This ensures that the odds shift in favor of balancing the risk between different outcomes.
These computations combine statistical analysis, probability theory, and market adjustments to create balanced and profitable odds.

HOW TO INCREASE CHANCES OF WINNING IN ESPORTS BETTING

When it comes to esports betting, having a solid strategy can significantly enhance your chances of making informed and profitable bets. By employing the following esports betting strategies, you can develop a sustainable approach that not only boosts your confidence but also maximizes your returns.

By combining the following skills, you can improve your chances of winning and develop a sustainable betting approach:

— Research the meta, the teams, and the players

Conducting thorough research is essential for successful esports betting. Analyze team performance, individual player stats, recent form, and head-to-head matchups. Knowing how teams perform under different conditions, their strengths and weaknesses, and recent game results gives you a better chance of making informed decisions.
Additionally, understanding the meta – or the most effective strategies, or characters in a game within a specific period – can give you an edge in predicting outcomes. Understanding the meta gives you insight into which teams are more likely to succeed under current game conditions, leading to better bets.

— Select the right sportsbooks and shop for the best odds

Compare odds across multiple betting sites to find the best value for your bets.
Using odds comparison websites can simplify the process of finding the best odds across multiple sportsbooks. This not only helps in securing better payouts but also allows you to identify which sportsbooks consistently offer competitive lines. Over time, even small differences in odds can accumulate significantly, impacting your overall profitability. By choosing the right sportsbooks and consistently seeking the best odds, you can enhance your chances of making successful bets and maximizing your returns.

— Focus on specific games

Specializing in one or two games, such as League of Legends, CS, or Dota 2, is more effective than betting across a wide range of games. By focusing on a particular esport, you can gain expert knowledge of the game mechanics, strategies, teams, and player dynamics, allowing you to make more informed bets.

— Utilize live betting features

Live betting allows you to place bets on games while they’re happening. Compared to pre-game odds, live odds change as the game progresses. If you’re watching the game, you can use what you see to make more accurate predictions. Live streaming and betting also let you take advantage of special bets, like predicting the first score, number of kills, or MVP in a match.
Esports betting sites also have useful features like bet builders, parlay boosts, early cashouts, and odds boosts, which can help protect your money and reduce losses. For example, early cashout lets you take part of your winnings before all bets in a parlay are settled.

— Employ the Fibonacci strategy

The Fibonacci betting system is a straightforward yet comprehensive approach that aims to ensure a win over time. But how does it work? After a loss, you double your previous wager to recover your losses and increase your chances of profit.

For example, if you placed a bet of PHP1,000 and lost, you would double your next bet to PHP2,000. You continue doubling the bet after each loss until you eventually win. That single win will cover all previous losses and generate a profit.

While the Fibonacci strategy is popular, it has sparked debate among betting experts due to its high-risk nature. Despite this, many bettors still use it to achieve profits. However, it’s crucial to set a clear bankroll limit that you won’t exceed, regardless of the losses. This precaution helps prevent significant financial setbacks.

— Avoid favorites in Best of One Matches

In best-of-one matches, favorites can be unreliable due to the unpredictable nature of single-game outcomes, so you may want to consider betting on underdogs or analyzing factors like team dynamics and map preferences for better value. Upsets are more common, as a single poor performance can lead to a favorite’s loss. It’s wise to research the team’s recent performance and matchups rather than relying solely on their ranking.

— Avoid betting on smaller or lesser-known teams

Betting on lesser-known teams can be risky due to limited information on their skills and strategies. These teams may perform inconsistently, making it hard to predict outcomes accurately. Researching their past performances and the context of their matches is crucial to understand their potential. Avoid placing significant bets on unknown teams unless you have reliable data to support your choice.

— Watch for roster changes

Roster changes can significantly impact a team’s performance, often leading to unpredictable results. New players may take time to gel with the existing team, affecting coordination and strategies. Keep an eye on any recent changes before placing bets, as teams might be less effective initially, and analyze how new players fit into the team’s dynamics to make more informed betting decisions.

— Consider different betting markets

When betting on esports, consider various markets beyond just the match winner. Options like map winner, first blood, total rounds, and specific player performances can provide better odds and insights. Each market reflects different aspects of the game and can be influenced by team strategies and player form.
Analyzing the matchup and understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the teams involved will help you identify the most promising markets. By diversifying your betting strategy and choosing the right markets, you can enhance your overall betting experience and increase your chances of winning.

— Bet small when starting out

Betting small is a smart strategy in esports betting, especially for beginners. By placing smaller wagers, you reduce the risk of significant losses while gaining valuable insights into the betting landscape. This approach allows for experimentation with different markets and strategies, fostering responsible gambling. As you become more confident and knowledgeable, you can gradually increase your bets, ensuring a controlled and enjoyable betting experience that minimizes financial pressure.

— Look for special promotions
Many sportsbooks offer promotions, bonuses, or enhanced odds for esports betting. Take advantage of these to maximize your potential returns. These promotions can boost your bankroll and reduce risks, especially with risk-free bets or deposit bonuses. Make sure you’ve read the terms and conditions to understand wagering requirements. By strategically using these offers, you can maximize your potential returns and improve your overall esports betting experience.

— Don’t get carried away by the odds
Don’t just chase big payouts. While odds can show potential winnings in esports betting, remember that high odds often come with high risks. This is a key lesson experienced bettors have learned over time. Instead, focus on doing thorough research to identify the most favorable outcomes for each game – this will guide your decisions especially when placing over and under bets.

— Sell your bets, if you can
Selling bets, also known as lay betting, is a strategy used by individuals or platforms that act as the “bookmaker.” Instead of placing a traditional bet on a team to win, you are effectively betting on a team to lose. This process is common on betting exchanges, where users can buy and sell bets among themselves, rather than dealing with a traditional bookmaker.

— Set a budget
Managing your betting bankroll effectively is crucial for long-term success. Bet only a small percentage of your total funds (1-5%) on each bet to minimize risk and avoid losing large sums on a single wager. Sticking to this strategy prevents impulsive betting and helps you withstand losses.

Why it works: Bankroll management ensures that you can continue betting over the long term, improving your chances of success by avoiding reckless decisions.

In the next section, we’ll discuss how to sell bets in esports betting.

Find Opportunities to Sell Bets

To maximize your profits and minimize risks, identify markets where the team or player you want to lay (bet against) is overrated. Selling bets can be profitable, but it also comes with substantial risk, especially because your liability is usually higher than your potential profit. Here are some tips to manage risks:

• Set a Lay Limit: Only lay bets up to a certain limit. For instance, if you’re comfortable with a liability of $50, avoid accepting bets that would exceed that.
• Monitor Market Movements: Betting exchanges often fluctuate based on the volume of money being wagered. Monitor the market to adjust your lay odds accordingly.
• Hedge Your Bets: You can back the same outcome at a different bookmaker or exchange to limit your potential losses. This is called hedging and can help reduce risk in volatile markets.

Betting on esports can be exciting, but make sure to gamble responsibly and stay informed.

ESPORTS BETTING FAQs

What is esports betting?
Esports betting involves wagering on the outcome of professional video game competitions. Popular games include League of Legends, Dota 2, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS), and more.

Is esports betting legal?

The legality of esports betting varies by country and region. Some areas fully regulate it, while others may have restrictions or outright bans. It’s important to check local laws before placing bets.

How does esports betting work?

Esports betting works similarly to traditional sports betting. Bettors place wagers on different outcomes, such as match winners, tournament winners, or specific in-game events, like the first kill.

What types of bets can be placed on esports?

Common types of bets include match winner (outright winner), handicap betting, totals (over/under), prop bets (like most kills or first blood), and futures (predicting a tournament’s overall winner).

Which esports games are popular for betting?

The most popular games for esports betting include League of Legends, Dota 2, CS, Fortnite, Overwatch, and Call of Duty.

Can I bet live on esports matches?

Yes, many platforms offer live or in-play betting, allowing bettors to place wagers as the action unfolds in real-time.

Are esports betting odds the same as traditional sports betting odds?

Esports betting odds are calculated similarly to traditional sports, based on factors like team performance, player statistics, and recent results. Odds are typically presented in decimal, fractional, or American formats.

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