Macau analyst expectations still too rosy, say observers

Unclear border reopening plans and rumored visa-troubles have dented industry confidence as to whether Macau will see any meaningful recovery this year.

Last month, analysts from J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank released their projections for Macau’s GGR and EBITDA recovery for the remainder of 2022, with both expecting a slight drop in 2Q22 GGR before reaching highs in the fourth quarter not seen since 2020.

Industry observer Eric Coskun, partner and president of casino operations at IGamiX Management and Consulting however argues that the projections may still be too bullish given the current and expected market conditions to follow over the next year.

“Only a true optimist could see any positivity for the rest of the year. Given that Chinese authorities are now clamping down on excessive player travel to Macau, we can expect GGR to continue to shrink for at least Q2 and Q3.”

“We may see a slight loosening of restrictions in Q4 however early signs indicate that gamblers and not genuine tourists will continue to be denied visas until at least the end of the year, which coincides with the new license bidding process. We may not see noticeable GGR growth until 1Q23,” added Coskun.

Coskun was referring to recent reports that Chinese authorities are turning down visas for frequent gamblers to Macau, which has been supported by channel checks from both Bernstein Research and J.P. Morgan.

Source: https://agbrief.com/intelligence/infographics/24/05/2022/macau-analyst-expectations-still-too-rosy-say-observers-infographic/